Monday, November 20, 2017

Why I bought ConAgra

One box contains 12 of these bad boys and within a day all 12 are gone.

Story time:


On Friday, November 17, 2017, I received a phone call from my boss at Walmart asking if I could do an 8 hour night shift since the frozen foods guy had to take emergency leave. Now warn you I just worked a 14 hour shift at my main job and I appropriately stated "no" to which he responded "I'll pay you overtime since you already worked 40 hours." Without thinking rationally the mere words of overtime forced my compliance.

Stocking the frozen meals section I started pondering. How could I build a grocery store from the ground up using the stocks I currently possess?

Real estate + land: WMT
General goods/dry food: GIS, HRL, CPB
Bread: FLO, CPB
Snacks: HRL, CPB, TSN, GIS
Breakfast foods: TSN
ready to eat meals/deli foods: HRL, TSN
frozen snacks: GIS
Frozen meals: _________

After researching I found the two major players in the frozen meals section; Nestle and Conagra. Your biggest question is why would I buy Conagra Foods over a super giant like Nestle? Nestle has grown revenue and net income by cutting cost and selling off product lines that didn't produce results. Even now they are in the process of looking for someone to buy their US confectioner brands.

What is Conagra doing? They are trimming off brands that failed to produce a profit. They reorganized their frozen meals to focus on quality over volume. instead of one dollar banquet meals they are now offering three to four dollar meals focusing on offering healthier choices and bigger portions. Conagra is currently in the process of releasing new innovative products for the modern world like non-lactose reddi whip made from almond milk.

But the main reason I decided to buy Conagra was for the CEO. People like their Bezos and Musk, but I love me some Connolly. Recently at Conagra webcast an interesting question was asked. Here's the link How will Conagra compete in a world rejecting brands for private labels? His response? The public is not rejecting brands, it's the brands that are rejecting the public. In other words, brands refuse to innovate for the modern american which left a huge void. Private companies saw the opportunity and jump into the void. How can brands complain of private companies when they themselves don't compete in that area?  Accordingly, he argues that brands lack the same weight to the modern generation compared to its historic customers. Modern Americans are willing to pay five dollar for a cup of coffee, but nowhere is anyone offering a full healthy fulfilling meal for that price. Connolly goes on to explain how companies are failing to capture millennials unstable dining schedules (referring to Millennials deciding what they will eat for dinner only a few hours before they actually eat). That Millennials tend to be on a tighter budget and buying fresh organic foods only to see them rot is creating a gap that Conagra frozen meals is trying to capture.

Any avid dividend investor in the food sector should listen to this conference. It's only 45 minutes long and captures everything wrong with the current food companies. Listen on your way to work or before bed to help you sleep at night. All I have to say is buying ConAgra added a bit of spice to my portfolio. A wise man once told me that investing in the market requires more than spreadsheets and analyst opinions. A true investor can stand on his own two legs and with conviction state that X company will grow and make me more money. If you don't have that conviction then you shouldn't be investing in that company.

As of right now ConAgra is my greatest conviction in the market and I will continue to use my walmart money to buy it until I reach 100 shares. 

Recent Buy: ConAgra



On November 20, 2017, I bought 28 shares of ConAgra (CAG) at $35.71 per share for a total of $999.88. This is a pure speculation buy. This has nothing to do with fundamentals or cheapness. I'll explain why I'm doing such a crazy move in another post. Forward dividends stand at $5,581.31.

Thursday, November 16, 2017

Recent Buy: MO


On November 16, 2017, I bought 15 shares of Altria Group (MO) at $65.79 per share for a total of $986.85. This will increase my forward dividends by $39.60 per year. MO is currently trading at historic fair value. Not too rich not too poor. Just bland.

Total shares of MO moves up to 73.6888. Forward dividends stand at $5,549.70.

Updated buy list:

  1. I was thinking of buying AQN at $10.5 and it ran to $11.00. If it goes back down to $10.50 I might make a speculative buy.
  2. ADM if it goes back down to $38.50- 38.75. I am long grain processors. 
  3. Or I might just buy $500 VTR and $500 HCN. Both are trading at or near fair value and I really want to increase my hospital exposure.
  4. Or something else go crazy and crash. did you see SJM and WMT this morning?  

Friday, November 10, 2017

Recent Buy: Archer Daniel Midland



On November 10, 2017, I bought 25 shares of Archer Daniel Midland (ADM) at $39.50 per share for a total of $987.50.  My forward dividend stands at $5,510.10. 

Monday, November 6, 2017

October Review: Buys, Recap, Watchlist

*They found this lifeboat right after Harvey. No idea where it came from.

Finally back from Houston.

Recent Buy

On October 26, 2017, I bought 19 shares of Realty Income (O) at $53.50 per share for a total of $1016.50.  On October 31, 2017, I bought an additional 19 shares of Realty Income (O) at $53.50 per share for a total of $1016.50.

October Review 

Dividends Earned 

Oct
AQN$1.51
CAH$15.35
CB$4.28
CPB$7.70
DEO$16.15
FCISX$0.20
FPI$0.52
GPK7.62
HASI33.81
ITW5.48
KMB6.84
KO86.58
LTC9.61
MDLZ0.22
MDT46.25
MKC4.25
MO38.35
NKE0.54
PM9.71
STAG4.42
STOR75.48
WPC15.3
Total$390.17

Cash Flow


October
Bank$52,632.12
Merill Edge$142,108.40
Merill Edge Roth$15,063.76
computershare$3,181.49
401k$74,621.55
Total Portfolio$287,607.32
Full+partime job$6,112.74
Side hustle$52.88
Dividends$390.17
Total Cash Flow$6,555.79
Utilities $211.18
Car Bill$435.45
Misc. Spending $574.88
Total Liability$1,221.51
Total Cash Flow$6,555.79
Total Liability$1,221.51
Gain/Loss$5,334.28
percent saved81.37%

Summary
  1. Utilities were low since I was gone most of the month.
  2. I'm still working towards $300,000.00 total by December 31, 2017. I need to somehow make $13,000 in two months. 
  3. The majority of my portfolio are in consumer defensive and reits (mostly single tenant and healthcare). Both are being hit by the Amazon effect. As such I am trailing behind the S&P 500. 
November Watchlist 
  1. Nothing changed. I'm still buying more consumer defensive stocks. The Amazon effect won't go away until Amazon either gets taken out or people completely change their buying habits. Instead of adding new positions, I would like to build up my pre-existing positions. 
  2. Noteworthy stocks this Month includes
    • Altria Group (MO); prefer $60
    • Archer Daniels (ADM); prefer $45
    • Kimberly Clark (KMB); prefer $110
    • Dominion Resources (D); prefer $78
    • Pepsico (PEP); prefer $100
    • Procter Gamble (PG); prefer $80
  3. At the same time I could wait out for the tax harvesting season to end which is near the beginning of Christmas and leads to the Santa Claus rally (if they are still doing that).
  4. My Capital One Money Market just increased their savings rate to 1.3% so there's that in mind. I haven't really decided what to do yet. 
  5. Like always I let the market guide me. A few things I've learned about investing. I want to share with you readers
    • Two years ago the market declared the death of hotels. Air B&B was supposed to wipe out the entire hotel business. Hotel stocks became cheap and I was fearful listening to talking heads. After a miss by a few hotel companies/reits it looked like the death of Hotels...but it never came to be. The industry consolidated and got stronger based on great values.
    • Last year was the death of industries. The world's global economy was supposed to enter stagnation and soon depression. A few industries missed their earnings and it was the death of industrial stocks. Again I was fearful and let that fear induce me to selling off all CMI at $110...which is now $150. Again nothing happened.
    • This year is the death of retailers and food companies. Amazon is going to wipe out the entire food industry with whole foods. A few food companies missed their earnings and we are currently in a defensive route. Instead of being fearful I idiotically jumped into the fray and bought huge amount of consumer stocks. Am I right that this time or will this trend actually fulfill its promises? I don't know. I only buy what I know and I know real estate and food. What could be the dog of 2017 could become the golden goose of 2018. 
My portfolio page is finally updated. Forward dividend stands at $5477.73.  

Have a late great Halloween and enjoy time with your family. Seeing so many people displaced into homeless shelters make me realize how easy it is to destroy a person's livelihood. I'll add another post in the future about the importance of $400. So important that people killed each other for it. 

Thursday, October 19, 2017

Recent Buy: Hormel Foods

Sometimes i feel like I'm the crazy one and everyone else is a genius

On October 19, 2017, I bought 34 shares of hormel foods at $30.50 per share for a total of $1037.00. This brings my total shares to 221.6951. Forward dividends stand at $5,340.50.

Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Recent buy: LTC

On October 17, 2017, I bought 21 shares of LTC Properties at $47.08 per share for a total of $988.68.

This brings the forward dividend to $5,317.38.