Wednesday, January 11, 2017

Second Buy of 2017: PG and GPK



On January 11, 2016, I bought 30 shares of PG at $83.30 per share. I also bought 100 shares of GPK at $13.20 per share. Total cost $3833.00 or one and a half month of my pay gone in 10 minutes. I also have an open order for GIS at $60.50, but it doesn't look like it'll get there. Let's hope these investments do better than my TEVA. TEVA has a large cash flow (6 billion), but a lot of debt. I think it'll be fine eventually with the new trumpcare coming in and the always increasing demand for more generic drugs + their generic viagra is coming out this year and the epipen is always waiting in the wing.

There's been a lot of talk about outsourcing my job and management is carrying around a list of everything you've done wrong since the beginning of time. Guess it's time to hoard OT and find another job. Life of a worker-slave. I also submitted my first seeking alpha article this week. Hopes it goes through!

Forward dividends stand at $2012.55. I might go back in if trump keeps bashing the healthcare companies. Come on $100 JNJ. Portfolio updated.

Wednesday, January 4, 2017

First buy of 2017: TEVA, UL, and VFC



On January 4, 2017, I bought 
  • 100 shares of TEVA at $38.00 per share for a total of $3,807.
  • 24.56 shares of UL at $40.71 per share for a total of $1000.
  • 4.85 shares of VFC at $53.38 per share for a total of $250. 
This gives me 100 shares of TEVA, 208 shares of UL, and 94 shares of VFC. I really want to get 6 more shares of VFC and 92 more shares of UL. 

Rationale
  • UL and VFC are trading at fair value. TEVA is trading at a huge discount or huge overvaluation depending on who you ask. I'm saying TEVA is trading at a discount. 
  • UL fell because of the strong dollar. Once the dollar weakens UL will skyrockets. I saw this last year when UL crashed below $40. 
  • It doesn't matter if it's obamacare or trumpcare or some sort of healthcare plan. TEVA generics will be leading the pack to cheaper healthcare cost. It's always good to be the biggest. Speaking of something big, TEVA has two huge drugs coming out soon  
    • Generic Viagra coming at the end of 2017.
    • Generic Epi-pen currently being studied by the FDA.
  • I should have bought CAH, but I hesitated. Even with all my research I didn't pull the trigger. Now it's skyrocketing. AMGN was the same. TEVA is something else I had an inking on. It has high debt, but makes so much money it can easily meet its obligations. I expect dividend growth to be stale for a while. This is a high dividend/deep value kind of stock.
Portfolio updated. Forward dividends stand at $1,859.15. Portfolio updated. My next buy is probably going to be GPK. I really like this stock. Good fundamental, but debt is a problem. Decisions decisions. Should I borrow on my savings now or wait for my paycheck next week.

Long: TEVA, VFC, UL, and soon GPK.  Disclaimer: trust no one on the internet

Wednesday, December 21, 2016

Recent Buy: More Medtronics (MDT)



On Dec 21, 2016, I bought another 50 shares of Medtronics (MDT) at $71.50. This gives me 100 shares total. This is an increase of $76 a year going forward. This makes my forward total income at $1,640.97.

I would love to top off UL if it can get back below $40. Am I crazy at buying near 20k top? you betcha. Remember when we hit 10K and it was a huge deal?

Merry Christmas/whatever you believe in and a Happy New Year or early Lunar New Year.

And if you don't celebrate any holiday go and enjoy some chinese turkey. 😁


Monday, December 12, 2016

Recent Buy: More Unilever

On December 12, 2016, I bought 25.1699 shares of Unilever (UL) at $39.73 per share for a total of $1000 in my Loyal3 Account. This increased by forward dividends by ~$30 (due to forex).

With the strong dollar and weak pound/euro, this would seem like a horrible investment. Sure I'm getting 3.5% but after forex it's lower due to the strong dollar. However, like all currencies the dollar can only be strong for so long. At some point someone will short the dollar or it will naturally swing the other way to undervalued. Until it swings I'll happily wait and hoard more UL. I am currently at 151 shares. My goal is to own 300 shares at below $40 cost basis with a 3.5% yield and catalyst for price growth. NSRGY is looking interesting as well.

Also does anyone have any information on AQN? I'm trying to research this thing but I would like some experts to chime in on this gem. 

My forward dividend stands at ~1377.64-1407.33 depending on UL distribution $0.35 vs $0.301.
  

Thursday, December 8, 2016

Recent Buy: Medtronics


Today on December 8, 2016, I bought 50 shares of Medtronics at $71.89 for a total of $3.601.35.

Description

Medtronic plc manufactures and sells device-based medical therapies worldwide. The company’s Cardiac and Vascular Group segment offers pacemakers, implantable cardioverter defibrillators and cardiac resynchronization therapy devices, AF products, diagnostics and monitoring devices, and remote monitoring and patient-centered software; and heart valves, percutaneous coronary intervention stent products, surgical valve replacement and repair products, endovascular stent grafts, peripheral vascular intervention products, and products to treat superficial and deep venous diseases. 

Rationale: Rewards>risk

  1. Yield 2.4%
  2. Payout ration: 53% 
  3. P/E
    1. TTM: 23.95x
    2. Forward: 14.27x
  4. Why is it down? 
    1. From buying Covidien. 
    2. And slowing down of rising price of medical reimbursement. 
  5. Fair Value or discount?
    1. Simply Wall St 
      1. Fair value: $87.82
    2. S&P capital: 
      1. 4 star buy, 
      2. fair price $86. 
      3. One year target $87.
    3. Thompson Reuters: 
      1. Neutral 4 buy, 
        1. Low: $80
        2. Mean: $85.5
        3. High: 96
    4. Edward Jones: 
      1. Buy rating
      2. Fair Value: $80.58
    5. Yahoo Finance:
      1. One year target: $85.50
Tax issue

"Beginning with the dividend payable on April 15, 2015, payments will be subject to an Irish withholding tax of 20% of the amount of each dividend unless the shareholder that is beneficially entitled to the dividend is a resident of the United States or a resident of a country listed as a “relevant territory”, and has ensured that the required information is on file with their broker, bank, qualifying intermediary or transfer agent (see below for more detail). With these rules, the vast majority of Medtronic shareholders and beneficial owners are entitled to an exemption from DWT."

This increased my forward dividends by $76.00 to $1,374.42. My next buy will probably be more UL or another 50 shares of MDT at $70 to complete my position. I also have a 100 share buy order on JNJ at $100. If the JNJ buyout goes through we might see that $100 again. 

Disclaimer: these are my opinions. Also updated my portfolio page. I really need to learn how to do that google docs thing. 

Wednesday, November 23, 2016

Dec. 4, 2016: Auxit/Italy's referendum. Europe in Chaos. Buying Time!



Enough hating Donald Trump. Let's talk about hating the EU.

On December 4, 2016, two major decisions will be held in Europe: the Italian Referendum and the Austrian Election.

Italy

Italy has something called a bicameral system meaning two houses of equal power. Imagine two large but equally in size and power nations. Italy call these the Chambers of Deputies and the Senate of the Republic. For a law to be passed both nation has to agree ON THE EXACT BILL WORDING AND ALL. Which in other words mean laws move slower than the US congress. So the Prime Minister of Italy, Matteo Renzi, decided to reform the Italian parliament to allow for faster legislation approval. Under the new guidelines
  1. The Senate loses power. Instead of deputies and senate it will be "local and central institutions."  
  2. The Senate goes from 315 to 100 and the senators are picked from regional council (no longer elected)
  3. Pro
    1. Less power to senate means bills are quicker to pass
    2. Centralize power to the central govt 
  4. Con
    1. Basically destroys the senate.
    2. People only vote for half of the Parliament, the other half is based on nepotism. 
    3. Local govt have less say and centralize power to the central govt 
So why does this affect the EU?
  1. Italy has been growing at an anemic pace (sometimes negative)
  2. Renzi is a pro-EUer and stated that if this referendum fails he would step down.
  3. His absence would create a huge power vaccum.
  4. There is strong support for NO from both the democrat and republican.
  5. But I have a feeling the vacuum will be filled by the 5 star party/movement
    1. 5 stars is a proenvironmental, anti-establishment, anti-globalist, and euroskeptic party
    2. the 5 stars represent their beliefs of 1) Public water, 2) Sustainable transport, 3)sustainable development, 4) right to internet access, and 5) environmentalism.
  6. The 5 star has captured 2 mayoral positions (including rome) and is the biggest threat to the left-right parties of the EU. It's basically the populist movement as we've seen in the UK and US. Anyone but a politician.
  7. Last year the 5 star were seen as a far right fringe group. But with the rise of Brexit and Trump I have a feeling the populist movement is gaining momentum. Stagnated economy, false inflation/gdp growth by the central bank, and no wage growth is starting to make the masses angry. Perfect rich environment for a populist. I think this was the reason for Brexit and Trump rising. The economy is booming, GDP is growing, and stock market is higher! But it benefits little for the average person.
  8. Filipino President Duertes came into power the same way.
Austria Election

Norbert Hofer (Freedom party of Austria) vs Alexander Van Der Bellen (Austrian Greens)

On April 24, 2016, Alexander Van Der Bellen was elected as the new president by 30,000 votes. But there were numerous arguments of voter fraud and improper counting. Such as a 147% turnout Waidhofen an der Ybbs and an impossible turnout in Linz. 

On July 1, 2016, the Constitutional Court ruled that the election was improperly handled. 30,000 votes were prematurely tallied, 50,000 votes were counted by unauthorized personnel, and 500,000 votes were invalid. The Court ordered a new election which is now Scheduled Dec. 4, 2016.

Why it matters

  1. Hofer is an anti-EU skeptic like the 5 star party.
  2. Hofer is narrowly leading the polls as of today.
  3. Although Hofer said he would not leave the EU he has indicated his desire for Austria to regain autonomy from Merkel and Brussels,
 
Investment Strategy

  1. Foreign stocks have been dropping lately in anticipation of these votes. 
  2. If the referendum loses and Hofer wins the Euro will crash and the dollar will skyrocket.
  3. Stocks that relies largely on the euro or foreign monies will crash
  4. Buy list:
    1. Unilever (UL) 
    2. Phillip Morris (PM)
    3. Nestle (NSRGY)
    4. Diageo (DEO) 
    5. National Grid (NGG) 
    6. Multinational American Stocks like we saw after the Trump Election.
Good Luck Everybody.

Monday, November 14, 2016

Recent Buy: UL



On November 14, 2016, I bought 12.6968 shares of Unilever (UL) for a total of $500 in my loyal3 account.

This is probably my last buy until the rate hike (except for maybe DEO).

Forward dividend is $1,049.73.