Monday, October 19, 2015

Recent Buy: CMI


I am going on a two week business trip so I took an advance on my paycheck for some fun (meaning I took money from my savings and will add back to it this Saturday when I receive my paycheck). As a side note I hate big rigs. I hate how they drive up to me on the highway during rush hour and how they refuse to let anyone pass them. On that note


On October 19, 2015, I bought 10 shares of Cummins (CMI) at $108.70. Total cost + fee is $1094.00. This will add $39 dollars to my dividend fund.


Fundamental


1. What is a Cummins?


Cummins Inc. designs, manufactures, distributes, and services diesel and natural gas engines, and engine-related components. It operates in four segments: Engine, Distribution, Components, and Power Generation.


2) Valuation


  • P/E: 11.52x ttm; 
  • Forward: 10.38x
  • PEG: 0.60x
  • P/S: 0.98x
  • TTM ROE: 22.2%
  • Debt/equity: 0.21% 
  • DGR: 
    • 1 yr: 24.9 %
    • 3 yr: 28.5 %
    • 5 yr: 32 %
    • 10 yr: 25.1 %
  • Dividend yield: 3.5%
  • Dividend payout ratio: 33%
  • Number of year dividend increased: 10 (CMI has split 2:1 twice in the past ten years)



CMI
MachineryAverage
Industry Percentile
Market Cap
$21.53B
$6.91B
99th
P/E (Trailing Twelve Months)
12.66
15.61
29th
P/E (5-Year Average)
14.46
20.05
18th
PEG Ratio (5-Year Projected)
1.23
--
29th
Enterprise Value
$21.35B
$22.57B
97th
Price/Cash Flow (Most Recent Quarter)
8.96
11.10
52nd
Price/Cash Flow
9.81
11.77
41st
Price/Sales (Most Recent Quarter)
1.07
1.36
55th
Price/Sales
1.10
1.39
57th
Price/Book
2.80
09/11/2015
3.04
71st
Book Value
44.22
06/30/2015
21.18
100th

Growth Est
CMI
Industry
Sector
S&P 500
Current Qtr.
13.40%
1.50%
79.90%
4.80%
Next Qtr.
4.70%
42.10%
65.30%
7.80%
This Year
10.10%
13.60%
30.70%
-0.10%
Next Year
8.70%
16.70%
25.70%
10.60%
Past 5 Years (per annum)
7.02%
N/A
N/A
N/A
Next 5 Years (per annum)
10.30%
13.09%
13.11%
6.89%
Price/Earnings (avg. for comparison categories)
11.84
12.23
14.97
12.12
PEG Ratio (avg. for comparison categories)
1.15
1.47
-2.36
-1.26
article from SA here


3) Fair value
  • Simply wall Street: $115 
  • S&P capital:
    • $143.50 fair value; 
    • $180 12 month target ; 
    • 5 stars Strong Buy
  • Yahoo: $131



4) Future Goals


CMI is working on and selling near zero emission natural gas engines which will help companies follow EPA and state clean air acts. Sales have been depressed because of the low cost of oil but natural gas engines are the future. I highly doubt there will ever be a solar powered big rig in my lifetime.  


CMI also has a “hedgehog” in its pipeline for 2016. What is hedgehog? Imagine a really big engine that can be used for trains, boats, and basically anything not drivable on highways. More horsepower and efficient.  


Weaknesses:


Every stock has weaknesses.


  1. Forex: 50% of CMI’s business is overseas.
  2. Economy: Slow downs destroy all industrial stocks.

If i happen to get more cash I'm hoarding CMI to make a full position of 50 shares. My dividend fund is now $2,135.65 + FCISX distribution. I updated my 2015 goals, forward dividends increase to $2,200.00. See you readers in 2 weeks.



*you know the rule. I'm not a lawyer, financial adviser, etc. Don't follow my advice.

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