Friday, June 26, 2015

SimplyWall.St review

Recently I've been using a beta testing app called Simply Wall St. I've been using S&P capital, Morningstar, and fastgraphs but decided to try out this app to see what the hype is about. The Beta App is free to use and the website states that it will be free after beta. They make their money by you clicking the "invest now" button which redirects you to TradeKing.  

So what is it? Imagine reading a 10k but having no idea what mangagement is saying. Now boil down that 10k to simple pictures and graphs. Voila, you have simply wall street.

Simply Wall St uses a "snowflake" model to quickly summarize a stock. The snowflake has five parts: Value, Future, Past, Health, and Income. 

Value is the fair market value based on cash flow, past earnings, expected growth, and price on value of assets.

Future is based on expected future performance in 1 and 3 years from now (no 2 years), past and future EPS, analyst growth expectations, and expected ROE in 3 years. 

Past is based on past growth, profit history, and performance last year composed of ROE, ROA, and ROC.

Health is net worth compared to debt (short+long), balance sheet, and historic debt compared to today.

Income is the dividends portion. It is composed of current yield, historic dividend yield (fast graph-ish), current payout to shareholders, and future expected payout to shareholders.

There is also a management section but I normally ignore that part. 

PRO:

1) very nice to see everything from EPS to debt to asset in graphs and pictures. Sometimes it's harder to imagine how about a company's debt is worth compared to their free cash flow using just numbers.
 
2) I like the comparison of dividends present to past dividends

3) easy to compare among a sector of competitors based on the snowflake model. Think of seeing the entire beverage companies valuation compared with each other at one time without having to read numbers. 

Con:

1) not all the companies are on the list. Corenergy and new residential are two examples of non-listed stock. You can always contact the team to put in a company.

2) not very accurate on asset heavy companies and reits. For example, Ventas fair market value right now should be $24.94 based on free cash flows and EPS. But reits use A/PPO...

3) very broad numbers. There is no nitty gritty only sunshine and rainbows. Does not show dividend percent growth or EPS growth. Again, everything is very broadly painted.

4) practically brand new. I would sign up using a fake email and PW to see all the hoopla but I wouldn't put any personal identifying information. 

Here is a snippet of simply wall street. This is the chart for KO

VALUE

VALUE BASED ON FUTURE CASH FLOWS
The estimated value of Coca-Cola shares based on future cash flows discounted to their present value. Learn more.
UndervaluedAbout rightOvervalued$34.38$40Futurecash flowvalueCurrentshareprice
  • The current share price of Coca-Cola is above its future cash flow value (Share price is $40 vs Future cash flow value of $34.38).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
The relative price of Coca-Cola shares compared to stock market averages.
PRICE BASED ON PAST EARNINGS
Food and Beverage industry averageCoca-ColaGood value ($)Overvalued ($$$)
PE 25x
  • Overvalued based on earnings compared to the Food and Beverage industry average.
  • Overvalued based on earnings compared to the overall market.
 
PRICE BASED ON EXPECTED GROWTH
Coca-Cola$$$$$$
PEG 0.5x
  • Good value based on expected growth.
PRICE BASED ON VALUE OF ASSETS
Food and Beverage industry averageCoca-Cola$$$$$$
PB 6x
  • Good value based on assets compared to the Food and Beverage industry average.


I will be using this in the future as a reference. It's nice to see an entire sector valued at one time. Morningstar is still my number 1 choice but it is always nice to have another investing tool.

Try it out at link
 

Wednesday, June 24, 2015

Recent buy: 107 shares of CORR

On June 24, 2015, I bought 107 shares of Corenergy (CORR). 101 at $6.10 and I flipped 6 shares at $6.17.

Rational
1) Corr has just reached an agreement to purchase all of EXXI Midstream and upstream facilities for $245 Million.

2) Corr will then lease the facilities back to EXXI for $40 million a year.

3) the purchase will be mainly through share dilution and debt funded by BofAML

4) to help current shareholders, dividends will be raise its dividend in the 3rd quarter upon completion from $0.135 to $0.15.

5) and then the market took Corr to the woodshed for a 10% 1 day loss

Like they say, when people are fearful get greedy. This is my first purchase of this company in a little over a year. I will probably flip for 3 more shares and won't buy any more past 300. I need to refocus and double down on my consumer staples.

A lot of investors have no idea what Corr is or what they do. I will be posting an article this weekend explaining Corr to another company KMI. The working title is KMI the "Bull" vs CORR the "tortoise".

My forward 12 month dividend currently stands at $1,688.56 + FCISX distribution.

For more information look at Brad Thomas article 

Seeking Alpha Article


Monday, June 22, 2015

Mini Buy: Ventas

I bought 10 shares of Ventas this morning at 65.17/share for a total of $658.70. This is my initial position with VTR and will be looking to buy more as the market goes down. I wish I had more cash but my employer has been cutting overtime. 

My healthcare reit portfolio currently composes of 

Large Cap: VTR
Medium Cap: OHI
Small Cap: LTC 

My forward 12 month annual dividend currently stands at $1630.78 + FCISX distribution. To put this into perspective. My annual dividend is equal to 1 of my paycheck after tax.

Friday, June 19, 2015

recent buy

My comp died, I went on vacation, and my google account was blocked for a while because of conflicting ISP (between my old comp and new one).

In other news I bought 27 shares of KO at 39.60 for a total of $1076.20. My 12 months forward annual dividend currently stands at $1599+FCISX dividend distribution.