Saturday, June 25, 2016

How I pick what stocks to buy and hold forever (probably)

I've been reading a lot of articles on Seeking Alpha on finding the next hot thing. Things like consumer reports, sector experts, hedge fund managers, etc. All pointless in my opinion. Here is my simple way of finding what stock to buy.

As many of you know I work a variety of random part-time jobs. I've been a stocker for walmart, a ringer for salvation army, a truck driver for foods/restaurants, an Uber driver, a private security guard, garbage collector (never again), etc. Here are my observations from working at Walmart.

1. Go to Walmart and look for what is empty.

Being a stocker is extremely demanding. If a product is down to its last 10 you have to immediately stock up. In a four-hour shift I might have to restock the same item 3-5 times. Once I had to restock the same item 10 times in a 4-hour period. Remember each "restock" consists of 50 five-pound cans per trip. Here are my observations.

A. On the first of the month baby formula is wiped out. (ABT) (MJN)

On the last week of every month my Walmart receives a huge shipment of baby formula. On the first week of each month our supply of baby formula is completely wiped out. This is not a joke about welfare. This actually happens each month. 

At my walmart our best seller is Enfamil by Mead Johnson (MJN). Our second best is Simlac by Abbott Labs (ABT). 

B. On the first of the month elder care nutritional supplement is wiped out. (ABT) 

For some reason our elder care supplements are wiped out on the first week of every month. Is social security paid out on the first of every month? Our best seller is Ensure by Abbott Labs (ABT). 

C. Diapers are wiped out on a weekly basis. (PG) (KMB).

If you have cash and nothing good is on sell buy diapers. Just how much do kids cost? At my Walmart diapers take up an entire aisle...and the entire aisle is wiped out every three days. 

Our best seller are the Luvs super absorbent disposables for $15.97. Luvs is manufactured by Procter and Gamble (PG). Our second best is the Huggies Little Snugglers at $17.97. Huggies is manufactured by Kimberly Clark (KMB). 

D. Tampons never get old. (WMT) (PG) (KMB)

Tampons. Freaking tampons. Do you know how embarrassing it is to restock tampons when there's a bunch of women waiting around? And then restock it because the moment you leave it's gone? Freaking tampons. 

Our best seller is the equate tampons for $4.97. Equate is manufactured by Walmart (WMT). Our second best seller is Tampax pearl which goes for $6.97-9.27. Tampax is produced by Proctor and Gamble (PG). Our third best seller is the U by Kotex (which is a maxipad) which goes for $6.98. Kotex is produced by Kimberly-Clark (KMB).     

I'll write more about my observations as I collect them. I am starting night shift next month which gives me more time to collect data. Maybe I'll write about the "starbucks trend" next week. Until then Happy Brexit!

Disclaimer: Don't follow my advice.


  1. Excellent article - it's a good to see how quickly the items on the shelves are emptied!
    BTW, I am long with ABT, WMT, PG, KMB.
    What about the food & drink isles? Cosmetics? Toothpaste? etc. I think you know the brands I am thinking about. Love to see how quickly these items are cleared.

    1. hey D4s, I'm collecting data on healthcare products like painkillers, and consumer staples like shampoos and lotions. I'll check out toothpaste as well. At my walmart we're placed in different teams like food, healthcare, seasonal goods, home care, etc. I was recently placed in the healthcare team but I wouldn't mind keeping my eyes out for other things. I'll write a long article or a series of short articles on food and drink because those are more seasonal.

  2. Extremely helpful post. This content is what we are looking for as investors. Technical posts about a company's financials is only mildly helpful and really boring. Hearing from someone with experience in the field (this is not a negative remark, I've worked similar jobs) is great! Keep up the great work!

    1. hey steve, I take no offense from that. I like working at walmart (strange huh?). I make 10 bucks an hour. I have flexible time and can work as much or little as I want. Best of all I can use the restrooms any time and as much as I want. I used to work in a factory that only allows a bathroom break once every 4 hours. At my age the restroom is becoming more important than money. thanks for visiting

  3. I read about this type of investing strategy long ago in a Peter Lynch book and follow it as well. It's not always about the financials because the financials can only tell you what already happened - you want to know what's going to happen in the future and going to stores and seeing where people are going and what they're buying will certainly help with that.

    It's hard to miss long term on companies that make things people use all the time.

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